A problem and a solution

In the last few days, since my birthday I've been having 'treats' as if it was still my birthday almost. As a consequence, I've been gaining weight. I've been here before, so have many dieters. So the solution is to 'punish' myself by that activity that I hate - exercise. My intention was to lose weight without exercising, which I still think is possible, but now if I'm above that green line on the graph any day, for that day I have to go running. The time that I need to run is the number of minutes equal to the number of times I've been over my limit in the last 14 days. I fully expected to go for a run today, but fortunately I was a smidgen below the line today. To prevent my running now and then in the future, I'll have to be below the line by a safety margin, to allow for variation in weighing values.